Personal Impact Estimator

How Much Good
Can One Career Do?

I'm a member of Giving What We Can, pledging 10% of my post-tax income to the most effective charities I can find. This page tracks the estimated real-world impact of that commitment — openly, with real numbers, explicit methodology, and honest uncertainty.

GWWC 10% PLEDGE MEMBER
0
Statistical Lives Saved
via $33.3K to GiveWell top charities ?How is this calculated?Based on GiveWell's blended cost-effectiveness: $5,000 per statistical life saved. $33,300 ÷ $5,000 = 6.7 lives. Uses conservative estimate accounting for imperfect optimization and rising costs.Source: GiveWell 2022-2024 cost-effectiveness analyses
MEDIUM-HIGH
0
Animals with Improved Conditions
via $18.5K to ACE-recommended charities ?How is this calculated?ACE central estimate: ~6 animals per dollar (discounted from 11-14 range). $18,500 × 6 = ~111,000. Almost entirely chickens/hens via corporate cage-free campaigns. Range: 37K–259K.Source: Animal Charity Evaluators + THL 2024 self-analysis
LOW-MEDIUM
0
DALYs Averted
from global health giving ?How is this calculated?6.7 lives saved × ~37 DALYs per life (based on under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, ~60yr life expectancy remaining). DALY = Disability-Adjusted Life Year.Source: WHO Global Burden of Disease methodology
MEDIUM-HIGH
02

Career to Impact

How $2.9M in career earnings flows through taxes, savings, expenses, and giving to real-world outcomes.

03

Giving Timeline

04

Lifetime Projection

10%
05

Beyond the Numbers

Impact is more than charitable giving. These are harder to quantify but no less real.

🌿

Vegetarianism

I don't eat meat. The average American consumes ~225 lbs of meat per year, responsible for roughly 25-30 land animals killed and significant environmental impact.

~200 animals not killed over career to date ?MethodologyAverage American eats ~225 lbs of meat/yr, equating to ~25-30 land animals killed. Over 7 years: ~175-210 animals. Does not count fish. Note: still consumes eggs, dairy (see Moral Ledger).USDA ERS food availability data
💼

Earning-to-Give Premium

By choosing investment banking over a median career path, my earning-to-give capacity is roughly 4× what it would otherwise be.

$132K additional giving capacity enabled ?MethodologyCounterfactual: ~$100K/yr in generic corporate role × 7 years = $700K. Actual: $2.9M. Premium: $2.2M. Post-tax premium (~60%): $1.32M. 10% pledge on premium = $132K additional giving capacity.Based on BYU finance grad median outcomes

Mission Service & Community

Served a two-year mission (LDS), baptizing 75 people. Regardless of religious views now, this brought meaning, community, and belonging to those individuals.

75 people brought into a community ?Note on quantificationThe wellbeing impact of religious community membership is genuinely positive for many: social support, purpose, belonging. Hard to quantify in standard welfare units. Carson has since left the LDS church but does not discount the value of community for others.Personal experience, 2013-2015
🤝

Community & Friendship

Close friendships and community involvement matter. Being a reliable friend, mentor, and community member creates genuine wellbeing that standard impact metrics miss entirely.

Unquantifiable but real
📈

Surplus Value Through Work

As a dealmaker in LP secondaries, I help institutional investors access liquidity and optimize portfolios. This market-making creates economic surplus beyond my compensation.

~$2B+ in transactions facilitated ?MethodologyStandard economics: market-makers create consumer surplus by reducing search costs and improving price discovery. Exact surplus is hard to measure, but the transactions I've facilitated represent billions in notional value where both parties benefit.Career transaction volume estimate
🔮

Forecasting & Public Goods

Active forecaster on Manifold Markets. Good calibration on prediction markets improves collective decision-making and information aggregation.

Contributing to collective intelligence
06

Moral Ledger

An honest accounting of both the costs and benefits of this life, including uncomfortable externalities.

Debits — Costs & Externalities
Annual Carbon Footprint~46 t CO₂ ?Carbon calculationFlight emissions: 0.25 kg CO₂ per passenger-mile (ICAO standard). ~42 round trips/yr. Car: 0.42 kg/mi (EPA avg). Housing: SF grid ~85% carbon-free. Standard offsets: $15/tonne (Gold Standard).ICAO, EPA emission factors
Flights (80%)36.8t
Food & goods (13%)6.0t
Housing (4%)2.0t
Car (2%)0.9t
vs. US Average16t (2.9×)
Career cumulative~250t
Offset cost (standard)$3,750
Offset cost (premium CDR)$25K–$150K
Eggs consumed (~3/week)~156 eggs/yr ?Egg externalitiesMost commercial eggs come from battery-caged or cage-free (but still confined) hens. Each hen produces ~300 eggs/yr, with ~72-week productive life. Even cage-free certifications allow significant suffering.USDA, Humane Society estimates
Dairy consumed (moderate)~$600/yr ?Dairy externalitiesDairy cows endure repeated impregnation, calf separation, and often confined conditions. Cheese production is especially resource-intensive: ~10 lbs milk per 1 lb cheese. Moderate consumption but nonzero animal welfare cost.ACE, Our World in Data
Fast fashion (occasional)Low
Electronics (phone, laptop)Low-Med ?Electronics supply chainConsumer electronics involve mining (cobalt, lithium, rare earths) with environmental and labor costs. Moderate impact through infrequent replacement cycles.Environmental Research Letters
High-income lifestyle creep~2.9× avg carbon
Below GWWC pledge target–$65K gap ?Giving gapAt 10% post-tax target over career, should have given ~$150K. Has given ~$84.5K. Plans to catch up via appreciated stock donation in 2026.Self-assessed against GWWC pledge
Time not volunteeredModerate
Total Moral Cost (est.)$70K–$220K
Credits — Positive Impact
Total Lifetime Giving$84,500 ?Giving breakdownGlobal Health: $33.3K • Animal Welfare: $18.5K • Existential Risk: $12K • Personal/Other: $19.7K • Religious: $1K. Directed to GiveWell, ACE, and EA Fund top charities.Personal records, 2019-2026
Statistical lives saved6.7
Animals helped~111,000
DALYs averted~247
X-risk giving$12,000
Animals not killed (7 years)~200
CO₂ avoided vs. avg diet~7t cumulative
Earning-to-Give Premium$132K additional
capacity enabled
Mission service (75 baptisms)Community value
Surplus value through work$2B+ transactions
Forecasting (Manifold)Public good
Mentorship & friendshipUnquantifiable
Net after standard offsets$80,750+
Net Impact Balance ?How to read thisCompares total charitable giving ($84.5K) against standard carbon offset costs ($3.75K). The bar shows giving as a proportion of total positive impact. Even at premium CDR rates, humanitarian impact far outweighs environmental costs.
Offset: $3.75K Giving: $84.5K

Even at the most expensive carbon removal rates, the humanitarian impact of giving far outweighs the environmental cost of the carbon footprint that enabled it. The moral ledger is incomplete — it excludes the unquantifiable value of community, friendship, mentorship, and the economic surplus created through work.

07

Methodology & Confidence

Global Health Impact MEDIUM-HIGH

Based on GiveWell's 2022-2024 blended cost-effectiveness estimates. Conservative blended estimate: $5,000 per statistical life saved (accounts for imperfect optimization and rising costs). GiveWell's methodology is the gold standard in EA cost-effectiveness analysis.

Sources: GiveWell top charity cost-effectiveness analyses for Malaria Consortium (~$4,000/life), Against Malaria Foundation (~$4,500/life), Helen Keller Intl (~$3,500/life), New Incentives (~$4,500/life).

Animal Welfare Impact LOW-MEDIUM

Based on ACE estimates and THL's 2024 self-analysis. Central estimate: ~6 animals per dollar (discounted from ACE's 11-14 range). These are almost entirely chickens/hens via corporate cage-free campaign work. The range spans nearly an order of magnitude (37K-259K animals) — treat with significant uncertainty.

Existential Risk VERY LOW (quantified)

$12,000 directed toward reducing risks that could affect all future generations. The expected value argument for x-risk reduction is potentially enormous but carries fundamental uncertainty. No specific lives-saved claim is made.

Vegetarianism Impact MEDIUM

Based on USDA food availability data. Average American consumes ~225 lbs of meat per year, corresponding to roughly 25-30 land animals killed (primarily chickens). Over 7 years of vegetarianism: ~175-210 animals not killed. Does not count fish or aquatic animals. Note: still consumes eggs and dairy products, which have their own animal welfare costs (see moral ledger debits).

Product Externalities LOW

Egg consumption (~3/week): commercial egg production involves significant hen suffering even in cage-free systems. Dairy consumption (moderate): involves cow confinement, calf separation, and resource intensity. Electronics: cobalt mining, e-waste, and labor concerns. These are rough estimates with wide uncertainty bands.

Carbon Footprint MEDIUM

Flight emissions: 0.25 kg CO₂ per passenger-mile (ICAO standard). ~42 round trips/year. Car: 0.42 kg/mi (EPA avg). Housing: SF grid is ~85% carbon-free. Standard offsets priced at $15/tonne (Gold Standard). Premium CDR: $100-600/tonne.

Counterfactual Career MEDIUM

Without the investment banking path, estimated ~$100K/year in a generic corporate role. Over 7 years: ~$700K pre-tax vs actual $2.9M. The $2.2M earnings premium translates to ~$132K in additional giving capacity at 10% post-tax rate.

Financial Data HIGH

Career earnings, taxes, expenses, and savings figures are sourced directly from personal financial records tracked via the Gale Family Finances application. Career Earnings: $2.9M (pre-tax, including employer taxes & benefits). Taxes: $1.0M. Living Expenses: $0.5M. Savings/Net Worth: $1.3M. Charitable Giving: $84.5K (includes 2026 YTD).

Monte Carlo Projection LOW-MEDIUM

Career trajectory probabilities: P(stays in IB to MD) = 55%, P(exits to buyside/corp dev) = 25%, P(career disruption) = 20%. Comp ranges sourced from industry surveys. Effective tax rate: 38%. Cost-effectiveness drift: +2%/year. Discount rate: 3%/year.

All impact estimates carry significant uncertainty. Global health figures use GiveWell's well-validated models. Animal welfare figures use ACE estimates with much wider confidence intervals. Existential risk impact is fundamentally speculative. Carbon calculations use standard emission factors from the EPA and ICAO. Product externalities are rough approximations.

Last updated: February 2026. Commitment to annual refresh.